There is no reliable probability, because nobody can accurately predict short-term market moves. Any specific number would be a guess.

Context: on October 22, the S&P 500 fell about 1.2% as investors sold AI-related tech stocks. Even so, the S&P 500 is still up roughly 12% this year. For now, this is simply a market correction.

Interesting fact

This month, hedge funds have been short selling stocks about 5 times more actively than buying them. Short leverage has reached the 99th percentile of the past 5 years, meaning it was higher only 1% of that time.

Next week, 44% of all quarterly earnings will be reported, including many tech companies (Subscribe for key earnings results and analysis). If the Nasdaq holds its current range and earnings surprise to the upside, short sellers may be forced to buy shares back quickly. That rush to buy can trigger a sharp price jump, known as a short squeeze. In other words, when many investors have already bet against the market, even modest good news can spark a rebound.

What to watch:

AI capex risk, as the tech sector is currently the most sensitive.
Oil prices, inflation and bond yields.
Your investment horizon, and whether you can ride out a drawdown without panic selling.

During a sell-off, the most common mistakes are fear of losses and trying to “time the bottom”. If this question has been bothering you for several weeks, Rivus’s “Individual Analysis” may be worth a look.

Sources: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/ https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/10/62539017/meta-ai-spending-10-year-yield-below-5-stock-market-today